Thus far, the Western Security Council members have reacted skeptically (here, here, and here) to the Brazil and Turkey-brokered deal with Tehran, through which Iran would ship much of its uranium to Turkey. Interestingly, Moscow appears to be doubtful as well. For the moment, China is staying mum.
If Brazil and Turkey calculated that they could lure Moscow and Beijing away from support for sanctions, they may have miscalculated. For all their misgivings about a hard line with Tehran, these countries may not be keen to hand the key mediating role–and a big diplomatic victory–to two nonpermanent Council members. The permanent five is an exclusive club and its members are accustomed to having pride of place.
Meanwhile, the question of how the Brazilian-Turkish initiative will be treated by the other Council members could be critical. Even if Moscow and Beijing stand firm, the Tehran deal may have given other members queasy about sanctions an additional reason to oppose them–or at least abstain.